Marie Lozito

October 15, 2012


Marie Lozito is a Registered Nurse, Licensed Massage Therapist, wife, mother, grandmother and life-long conservative. She wrote a text on medical massage and taught at New York College of Health Professions.

Interested in, and observing politics since 1960, she ran for elected office in 2010.

 

Fudging the Numbers and Boldfaced Lies.

Wow! The nation created 110,000 new jobs last month and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%. That is under 8% for the first time in over 42 months! See? The stimulus just needed more time to work. Or maybe it’s a miracle. Sorry to disappoint you, it is neither the stimulus nor a miracle. They simply "cooked the books". You don’t have to be a mathematician or statistician to see how phony these numbers are. Just give it a little thought.

A couple of things to remember:

  • The monthly "new Jobs" number is nothing more than an educated guess. It can easily be guesstimated higher and has been on a regular basis throughout this presidency. A painfully obvious proof of this is that the number is almost always quietly revised at a later date. Some economists refer to these jobs as "phantom jobs". Even the New York Times reported on 10/5/12 "…That means that the margin of error on the forecasts, enough to cover 95 percent of all possible outcomes, is wider still: plus or minus about 170,000 jobs."
  • The unemployment number used only counts people not working that are still seeking to work. If you stop looking for work, you don’t count anymore. If you work part-time, even if you want to work full-time, you don’t count. If the "unemployment number" used the actual number of working age individuals that are not working it would be MUCH higher – around 14.7%.

Do you remember the July report about new jobs? It was 163,000 new jobs. (This number was later revised down by 52,000 jobs.) How come that job growth did not shrink the percentage of unemployed in America? It was certainly bigger than the 110,000 of September yet the July unemployment "ticked up to 8.3% from June’s 8.2%". How did the smaller number of new jobs in September manage to reduce the number to 7.8%?

That is really a simple question to answer. In statistics you can manipulate data fairly easily. If you change the data you are using, you can make really impressive changes in the results. This can be called "fudging the numbers" or "cooking the books" and that is exactly what the Labor Department did. This month the Labor Department changed the data they used to find the number of unemployed. They used the "household number". This is a much smaller sample asking a slightly different question about employment. Different data = different results.

To really get an unemployment rate drop like the Labor Department reported, the economy would have to be growing at 4-5%. Our current growth rate is a pathetic 1.3%. That is even lower and slower than last year at this time! (And remember, the recession officially ended in June 2009!)

Former Congressional Budget Office director, Doug Holtz-Eakin, called the number of new jobs "implausible" and the reduced percentage "…out of line with any of the other data." Even the liberal economist Dean Baker called the September rate drop "almost certainly a statistical fluke." No Mr. Baker, it is not a fluke. It is a deliberate lie being told to the American citizens by the American government. I don’t like being lied to.

Bad enough if this was the only lie coming from our current government. Unfortunately it is not. Another recent and huge lie is about the attack in Libya. Our ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed in a terrorist attack at our Consulate. For well over a week our official government position was that this was an unplanned mob demonstration that became violent, that it was instigated by an anti-Muslim video on you-tube and that it started after a similar mob demonstration at our Cairo embassy. They also said the attack was under investigation. Lie, lie, lie and semi-lie.

The very same day as it happened, the Libyan government said it was a coordinated, well planned, well targeted, military style terrorist attack, most likely executed by Al Qaeda. There was no demonstration going on in Egypt at our embassy when the Libyan attack began. It was only after our government was blaming the video that the Muslims oversees started demonstrating about it. (Incidentally, that video had been out on you-tube for 3 months before all this started.) It was another 10 days before Hillary Clinton even hinted that it might have been a terrorist attack. I can see being unprepared for the attack on 9/11/01 but not to be prepared by 9/11/12 especially when there had been security alerts in August? Somebody was asleep on the job and 4 Americans were murdered because of their lack of attention!

As far as the investigation goes, I’m not very impressed. The attack happened on 9/11/12 and not until 10/5/12 did a single official from our government go to the burned out consulate in Benghazi, Libya to investigate. Nothing like a long distance investigation of a crime scene! Reporters from America had been there, but no investigators. In fact, it was a CNN reporter at the burned out consulate who found Ambassador Stevens’ diary in which he had written that he was concerned for the lives of the staff there and that he had received numerous death threats.

Not incidentally the State Department, led by Hillary Clinton, failed everyone at the Libyan consulate miserably. The consulate did not meet published security guidelines from the State Department. There were security flaws with the doors, walls and windows. The State Department had turned down repeated requests from the consulate to improve the security. Even more unbelievable, the marines had no live ammo to use for defense! DISGRACEFUL!

I love this country but sometimes the government’s behavior disgusts me!

 

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